A Statistical Simulation Model for the Analysis of the Traffic Flow Reliability and the Probabilistic Assessment of the Circulation Quality on a Freeway Segment

Measuring the traffic quality and congestion level is fundamental in highway engineering, several decades of studies research have pursued this specific objective, especially for freeways. Nowadays, smart technologies on personal devices information shared by users made available various online platforms that provide dynamic representations use road network. If, one hand, these tools a simple direct representation circulation, other their aggregated only partial those dealing with engineering. This branch engineering relies multidimensional knowledge flow phenomena, through in-depth knowledge, we can assess risk. After identifying different approaches analyzing quantitative terms freeway, paper deepens reliability approach. From point view, aims to unite two perspectives literature, namely, probabilistic analysis instability characterization speed random processes breakdowns survival analysis. For purpose, work outlines procedure based estimation simulation ARIMA models freeway section, particularly leftmost lane, function. Applying Product Limit Method Monte Carlo results makes it possible obtain assessments congestion, considering Level Service density limits defined Highway Capacity Manual. Its application case study illustrate method, which be easily applied historical near-real-time data using continuous information.